Robot Tax for Inclusive Fiscal Policy: Strategi Menghadapi Disrupsi AI, Otomatisasi, dan Future of Work di Indonesia

Khofidatus Nur Sukriya, Karina Inge Primadhita, Nopi Dwi Ning Fitriyani

Abstract


Perkembangan otomatisasi dan kecerdasan buatan (AI) membawa perubahan besar pada struktur ketenagakerjaan, khususnya di sektor padat karya di Indonesia. Fenomena ini berpotensi mengurangi penerimaan pajak negara, terutama Pajak Penghasilan Pasal 21, karena basis tenaga kerja manusia semakin menyempit. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan deskriptif serta data sekunder dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Kementerian Keuangan, serta literatur internasional seperti OECD, IMF, dan McKinsey. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa otomatisasi dapat menurunkan penerimaan fiskal secara signifikan apabila tidak diimbangi dengan kebijakan baru. Simulasi sederhana memperlihatkan bahwa hilangnya 20% tenaga kerja akibat otomatisasi berpotensi mengurangi penerimaan PPh 21 hingga puluhan triliun rupiah per tahun. Konsep robot tax muncul sebagai alternatif instrumen fiskal untuk menjaga keberlanjutan penerimaan negara sekaligus membiayai program reskilling dan upskilling pekerja. Pembelajaran dari Uni Eropa, Korea Selatan, dan Amerika Serikat memberikan gambaran bahwa desain kebijakan harus disesuaikan dengan konteks sosial-ekonomi nasional agar tidak menghambat inovasi. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa robot tax bukan hanya pajak baru, tetapi strategi redistribusi manfaat otomatisasi agar keuntungan teknologi tidak hanya terakumulasi pada pemilik modal, melainkan juga dirasakan oleh pekerja dan masyarakat luas

Keywords


robot tax, otomatisasi, penerimaan pajak, reskilling, kebijakan fiskal

References


Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2020). Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets. Journal of Political Economy, 128(6), 2188–2244. https://doi.org/10.1086/705716

Autor, D. H. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3–30.https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/inlinefiles/Why%20Are%20there%20Still%20So%20Many%20Jobs_0.pdf

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Keadaan ketenagakerjaan Indonesia Agustus 2023. BPS. https://www.bps.go.id/id/publication/2023/11/08/8d3a8b7c6b5b87b62a36df3a/keadaan-ketenagakerjaan-indonesia-agustus-2023.html

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Statistik Indonesia BPS. https://www.bps.go.id/id/publication/2023/07/05/5b9e7e7d1c863b4cbdc1a7e4/statistik-indonesia-2023.html

Brookings Institution (West, D. M., & Lansang, C.). (2018). Should we tax robots? Brookings Report. https://www.brookings.edu/research/should-we-tax-robots/

Chang, J. H. (2018). The Republic of Korea’s policy response to automation. ILO Future of Work Research Paper Series, 3, 1–21. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/--cabinet/documents/publication/wcms_618168.pdf

Creswell, J. W. (2014). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches (4th ed.). SAGE Publications. https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/research-design/book237395

European Parliament. (2017). Report with recommendations to the Commission on Civil Law Rules on Robotics (2015/2103(INL)). European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-8-2017-0005_EN.html

International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation. (2021). Taxing artificial intelligence and robots: Critical assessment of potential policy solutions and recommendation for alternative approaches. IBFD. https://www.ibfd.org/sites/default/files/2021-09/International%20

%20Taxing%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Robots%20Critical%20Assessment%20of%20Potential%20Policy%20Solutions%20and%20Recommendation%20for%20Alternative%20Approaches%20-%20IBFD.pdf

International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation. (2021). Taxing robots: Policy challenges and perspectives. IBFD Publications. https://www.ibfd.org/shop/taxing-robotspolicy-challenges-and-perspectives

International Monetary Fund. (2021). Taxing the digital economy. IMF Policy Paper. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/04/21/Taxing-the-Digital-Economy

International Labour Organization. (2020). Global employment trends for youth 2020: Technology and the future of jobs. ILO. https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_737648/lang-

en/index.htm

Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. (2023). APBN Kita: Realisasi APBN 2022. Kemenkeu. https://www.kemenkeu.go.id/publikasi/apbn-kita/

Krippendorff, K. (2019). Content analysis: An introduction to its methodology (4th ed.). SAGE Publications. analysis/book258450 https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/content

Kumar, R. (2011). Research methodology: A step-by-step guide for beginners (3rd ed.). SAGE Publications. https://research-methodology.net/research-methodology/

Mann, R. F. (2019). I, robot: U tax? Considering the tax policy implications of automation. McGill Law Journal, 64(2), 363–402. https://lawjournal.mcgill.ca/article/i-robot-u-tax-considering-the-tax-policy-implications-of-automation/

McKinsey Global Institute. (2017). Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Public%20and%20Social%20Sector/Our%20Insights/What%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/MGI-Jobs-Lost-Jobs-Gained-Executive-summary-December-6-2017.pdf

Musgrave, R. A., & Musgrave, P. B. (2019). Public finance in theory and practice (8th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education. https://openlibrary.org/books/OL27326246M/Public_Finance_in_Theory_nd_Practice

OECD. (2021). Tax challenges arising from digitalisation – Report on pillar one blueprint. OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/tax/beps/tax-challenges arising-from-digitalisation-report-on-pillar-one-blueprint.pdf

Pitaloka, F. D., Rahmadewi, A., & Hidayat, M. (2024). The impact of job automation on workers in Indonesia’s garment companies. STI Policy and Management Journal, 9(1), 63–76. https://www.stipmjournal.org/index.php/stipm/article/view/385

Slemrod, J., & Bakija, J. (2017). Taxing ourselves: A citizen’s guide to the debate over taxes (5th ed.). MIT Press. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262036352/taxingourselves/

Taufik, M., & Andina, R. (2025). Exploring the impact of automation on the future of work in the agriculture sector in Indonesia. Jurnal Sosial Sains, 21(1), 29–40. https://jurnal.uny.ac.id/index.php/jss/article/download/80907/pdf/233724

Thuemmel, U. (2023). Optimal taxation of robots. Journal of the European Economic Association, 21(3), 1154–1198. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad005

Thuemmel, F. (2023). Robot taxation: A new fiscal frontier in the age of automation. World Tax Journal, 15(1), 55–78. https://www.ibfd.org/shop/world-tax-journal

West, D. M. (2020). Tax not the robots. Brookings Institution.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tax-not-the-robots/


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


ISSN: 2962-200X