GRDP Projection Analysis Using the ARIMA Model: A Case Study of West Java

Fajar Firmansyah, Diah Ayu Pratiwi, Dwita Astuti, Reza Kurniawan, Lustina Fajar Pratiwi

Abstract


One of the provinces in Indonesia with abundant potential is West Java. The province has strong prospects in the creative economy sector, as evidenced by West Java's Creative Economy GRDP contribution, which reaches 20.73% of the national GDP in the same sector. This study aims to analyze the projected growth of West Java's GRDP using a quantitative method. Forecasting is conducted using the ARIMA model, which relies solely on a single time series variable to project the GRDP growth of West Java from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025. The prediction results using the ARIMA method show a positive projection for the region's economic development over the next two years. The forecast indicates fluctuating growth, with the highest percentage occurring in the third quarter of 2025 and the lowest in the first quarter of 2025. This study provides practical contributions for policymaking and program development by the West Java provincial government, while also supporting private investment and workforce absorption.

Keywords: GRDP, ARIMA, West Java, Forecasting

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References


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https://ejournal.akprind.ac.id/index.php/STATISTIKA/article/view/3648


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